How I increase my probability of winning in Forex Trading and consistently maintaining 3% monthly returns for the past two years?

How I increase my probability of winning in Forex Trading and consistently maintaining 3% monthly returns for the past two years? – Part 1 of 4

 

I started trading back in 2009 and attended many expensive courses with renowned so called forex trading “Gurus.”Mostly they teach proprietary strategies and technical analysis. Craving for more knowledge, I spent countless hours going through technical trading books, learning candle sticks, chart patterns, indicators, price actions, etc., hoping to outwit the market. Eventually, did I make money; you may be interested to know? Factored in the cost fees, the lost ran up to five figures over the period of five years.

After investing money and five years, in my humble opinion why I was not profitable only boils down to two things,

· Mr. Market is out there to get retail traders and

· In generally human emotion is not favorable for discretional trading

To sum up, I was not profitable back then because I don’t have the EDGE the above two obstacles and to win the market. That is why I ended up like 90 over percent of retail traders, losing money and time.

 

So what did I do that I eventually become consistently profitable?

The simple answer is to have the Edge. So how I gained the Edge?

 

The answer to the million-dollar question can be found on the casino tables. In the world of casino, who has the edge, the players or the house? The obvious answer is the house and how did they achieve that?

The odds are designed so that the house always has an Edge or advantage over the players. This is cleverly done by using statistics. Take the roulette as an example; the wheel has 36 running numbers and two additional numbers of 0 and a 00. As a simple example, the odds for the player to win if he bets on an even number are 18/38 or 47.4%, and the house has 52.6% of probability of winning.  Effectively the house has a 5.2% Edge over the player (if the player bets on Odd or Even numbers).

The casino may in some occasions lose a game or two to the players but in the long run, that 5.2% Statistical Edge is enough for the casinos to be consistently profitable. It’s the same for trading. If you have the Edge, you may not be profitable for every trade, but over the long run, with hundreds of trades, you will come out with a positive net profit.

 

In conclusion, use statistic to increase your probability of winning.